Over his 24 years in charge, Vladimir Putin has filled his cabinets with an array of mostly indistinguishable and eminently replaceable politicians. Some have lasted for just a few months in the upper echelons of the Kremlin machine, but the one figure who — until this weekend — seemed set to remain in situ for as long as Putin did was the now former Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu. On Sunday came the shock announcement that Shoigu had been removed from his post as part of Putin’s post-inauguration cabinet reshuffle — but Putin’s choice of replacement, a technocratic economist, might herald the creation of a new, more streamlined war machine designed to engage in all-but permanent war.
Shoigu has long been part of the political furniture in the Russian Federation. He was appointed Minister for Emergency Situations by Boris Yeltsin in 1991 in the dying months of the Soviet era. He remained in that post until 2012, seeing out Yeltsin, Putin and even Dmitry Medvedev’s presidential terms. But as Putin returned to the presidency in 2012 on a platform filled with militaristic ultra-nationalism — one that promised a restoration of national greatness in the face of a purported Western onslaught — Shoigu ascended to his most important post, becoming the Minister of Defence in May that year.
Barely two years later, Russia had invaded the east of Ukraine and Crimea. Shoigu and Putin’s popularity boomed. A very public bromance between president and minister saw the two regularly photographed together playing hockey and engaging in bare-chested fishing sessions.
Since 2012, Shoigu has been the ever-present face of Russia’s wars. Whether briefing Putin at heavily publicised meetings in the Kremlin, attending the state’s lavish Victory Day parades, handing out medals to veterans of the “special military operation”, or visiting the injured in hospital, this doggedly loyal Putinist — always in uniform, and often bedecked with a rash of unearned medals — has seemed to embody the new, militarised Russia.
Yet in the past two years, Shoigu has become the target of much ire over the death toll and slow progress the Russian army has experienced in Ukraine. The former, and now deceased, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin almost launched all-out war against the state after Shoigu’s Defence Ministry attempted to assert control over his forces in summer 2023. He claimed that Shoigu was the source of the army’s failings, and only wanted to wage war to award himself more military honours. A slew of similar criticisms has bedeviled Shoigu’s ministry for years: its corruption, bureaucracy and incompetence are the subject of constant public criticism. Shoigu is thus perceived as a man with few redeeming features bar his loyalty to Putin.
Into Shoigu’s shoes, however, steps yet another close Putin ally: the long-serving economist Andrey Belousov. Belousov’s public image is far blander than his predecessor’s. White-haired, quiet and always clad in a neat business suit, Belousov is known for his impressive knowledge of — and competence in — economics. Even better, given the struggles that Shoigu’s ministry experienced, Belousov has gained a reputation for incorruptibility throughout his time in government.
Yet it would be a categorical error to interpret Belousov’s appointment as a return to normality or a move toward restoring order after the aggressive, militaristic chaos of the past few years. Belousov is a strong proponent of the post-2012 order, and was one of very few economists in Russia who welcomed the invasion of Crimea in 2014 — even though it brought disastrous sanctions on the country and saw the value of the Russian ruble plummet. He has been a key architect of the transition away from a liberal capitalist order in the Russian economy toward one in which the state — and in particular the state’s military enterprises — looms large.
Early signs from Belousov’s new ministry suggest that the state is looking for ways not to rein in but to streamline its forces, to find efficiencies, resolve long-standing organisational issues and continue to wage war for years to come. Belousov has been charged with immediately looking into issues around troop survival rates and the provision of proper medical care and civil allowances for soldiers returning from the front.
Whatever the change in leadership at the Ministry of Defence portends, therefore, it will not be a move toward a more peaceful Russia. Nor will it necessarily be a more humane Russian way of warfare in Ukraine. For the time being, Valery Gerasimov — a man accused of encouraging Russian troops’ war crimes in both Chechnya and Ukraine — remains the armed forces’ Chief of General Staff with primary responsibility for operational conduct in the theatre of war. Belousov’s role will presumably not be to issue correctives to men like Gerasimov but to provide them with a more efficient supply line of troops, arms and armour to behave in the way they see fit.
It’s hardly a surprise that Russia’s nationalist factions are cock-a-hoop at the news of Shoigu’s dismissal, which is, to quote one leading blogger, “a logical step”. Even if there is some suspicion that Belousov’s experience working with Americans might make him a soft touch (one popular commentator even jokingly called him a “veteran foreign agent”), the positive responses far outweigh the negative. Extreme nationalists — who have long railed against the logistical failures of Shoigu’s ministry — are revelling in the slew of Western news articles commenting on Belousov’s economic credentials. “They’re terrified,” claimed one user on a popular Telegram channel, “because Russia’s on the right path.” Paired with news of continued Russian progress against a depleted Ukrainian army, the sense of stagnation about the war within the country may be about to disappear.
At last week’s presidential inauguration, Putin spoke of the importance of the “special military operation” to Russia’s history. In a climactic flourish, he declared that “together, we will win!” In the past two years, Russia’s economy has pivoted from being one funded almost entirely by the sale of resources to one that funds itself through the production of material for war. Put simply, Russia now needs war to stave off economic collapse. With Andrey Belousov at the helm of the Ministry of Defence, Putin has made a choice to pursue that economic path with a ruthless efficiency that would have been impossible under the loyal but hapless Sergey Shoigu — and to provide his army with the means they need to win in Ukraine.
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Source: UnHerd Read the original article here: https://unherd.com/