In this post we are trying to estimate if the world population is already immune to Covid-19. To do so we are taking into account the following assumptions:
- SARS-Cov-2 virus exists and causes Covid-19.
- The data published by worldometers.info is correct and reliable.
- The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) in general population equals 0.2%. It varies between 0.15% to 0.24% depending on the study.
We have made our calculations in the following way:
H [%] = ( D / 0.002 ) / P
- H – % of people immune to Covid-19 in natural way (natural immunity caused to contact with the virus)
- D – number of deaths in a country attributed to Covid-19
- P – population of a country
- 0.002 – decimal equivalent of 0.2%
Logical explanation: if the Infection Fatality Rate equals 0.2%, we are able to calculate the number of infected people in a population based on the number of people who died. This is a straightforward mathematical calculation with only one variable – IFR.
- the population of most countries has natural herd immunity to Covid-19 and should not be vaccinated, or
- the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is much lower than 0.2%, in which case Covid-19 should be considered as a mild respiratory virus and no measures or vaccinations are necessary, or
- the number of people who died with Covid-19 is false and has been greatly exaggerated to create world-wide panic, in which case neither lockdowns nor masks nor vaccines are necessary, or
- all of the above!
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