It was the clock tower that settled it. The images of rebels driving around the central square of Homs, its famous clocktower visible, confirmed they had taken the city. This meant they could now sever Damascus from the coastal regions, cutting the Assad regime off from the remaining pockets of support it had outside the capital. It was over.
Right now, the rebels are at Umayyad Square in central Damascus; they have taken control of the State TV while explosions and gunfire can be heard in some neighbourhoods of the capital. These are likely to be bouts of sporadic fighting as pro-Assad militias try to make it to the coast or the Lebanese border.
Escape routes, though, are becoming hard to find. Damascus International Airport is closed, with all flights cancelled. The borders with Lebanon and Jordan are closed. The Syrian government has made no official statement yet, and the location of Assad and his family is unknown (though there are rumours that a plane he was fleeing in may have come down).
Syria is in chaos.
All eyes are now on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militant group in Syria that leads the rebel forces. Formed in 2017 through the merger of several factions, including Jabhat al-Nusra — al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate — HTS is a tricky proposition. It emerged from al-Qaeda but it also later fought them. Jolani is educated, sophisticated and politically astute.
He has by all accounts been on a journey since he was dispatched from Iraq with bags of cash to bring jihad to Syria. He seems to recognise that international terror is a busted flush and that political pragmatism and moderation — or at least the avoidance of overt brutality — are the way forward. Reports indicate that when it comes to fusing religion with politics his belief is “the real world has to guide your Islam, that you cannot force your Islam on to the real world”. On parts of Arab social media, he has acquired the nickname “Jolani-Zelensky”.
HTS’s reputation has soared as it has advanced across Syria. Its soldiers would seem to be avoiding civilian casualties for now and are careful not to be seen as an occupying military power. Incredibly, there have — so far — been no reports of old scores being settled. Instead, there is footage of Assad troops surrendering and being set free to go home (the foot soldiers at least) and of peaceful transitions of power at airports, police stations and so on. As one Syria analyst said to me, “I’m surprised we haven’t seen more images of Assad soldiers being lined up and shot, gathered in squares for public executions, minority persecution, displacement and so on.”
Unexpectedly, Jolani has been vocal about protecting minority rights. He has sought to portray a more moderate attitude in interviews and on the ground he has personally managed the surrender of Assad troops — offering pardons, and then handing over control of the areas to local councils and civil authorities.
Then there are the prisons. These are a shorthand for Assad’s barbarity. Social media is now drowning in videos of startled prisoners being released; of Syrians weeping with relief and joy to discover a relative imprisoned long ago is alive. It’s powerful messaging.
All of which is to say that if the military campaign is a success, the strategic communications have been a stroke of genius.
Not least because HTS remains problematic. Let’s not forget that not so long ago that its followers were selling foreigners to Islamic State to behead on YouTube. The US has designated the group a terrorist organisation and has a $10 million reward out for Jolani’s death or capture. If he intends to run for Syrian president — and there are a lot of Syrians who would love that right now — then the US bounty is a huge problem.
Assad had stamped on his people so hard for so long that what we are now seeing is the eruption of a sudden and colossal vacuum of power. For the moment, the only real contenders to fill it are Jolani and HTS. We must hope that Jolani’s conversion is indeed “Damascene”; the West simply cannot afford Syria’s implosion to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It would be salient, then, to remember the lessons of the fall of that other tyrant, Muammar Gaddafi. He was overthrown and everyone was euphoric. The problem was that booting him out had been the goal unifying all the armed factions — and without it, they turned on each other, with predictably disastrous consequences for Libya.
It didn’t help that the UN was too slow to put in place an effective political process. As a result, the government formed in Tripoli wasn’t inclusive, but made up of the Libyans who had been in exile and making friends in western capitals — just as the Iraqi businessman Ahmad Chalabi had conned so many people in Washington and London into believing that the Iraqis would welcome him as a returning leader. We never learn.
Ten years on, Libya is a mess. Tripoli is ruled by gangs and there has been zero development. Benghazi is run by a pro-Russian maniac. The country has become jihadi training camp and a launchpad for people smuggling to Europe.
Right now, the best-case scenario for Syria — and, most likely, regional security — is that Jolani is true to his word. What emerges is an inclusive political process to federalism, endorsed and supported by the international community, with funding for development and recovery. A transitional justice process is set up for perpetrators of war crimes, and there are no more Wild West jihadi training grounds fuelling untold terrorism and conflict the world over.
Regionally, the effects are huge. We don’t know what comes next, but it is extremely unlikely that a group that emerged from a Sunni Jihadists is going to have much time for Shia Iran and its militias. As it stands, Iran can kiss its land bridge to Hezbollah goodbye, severely weakening both parties, and strengthening Israel.
Jerusalem will have to watch what happens in the Golan Heights but as of now the events benefit Israel. One rebel even went on Israel’s Channel 11: “Dear neighbours from the State of Israel…” he said, “I’m speaking on my behalf and for all the free people of Syria. The next phase will be a phase of harmony and of peace with the State of Israel.” Whether that is true is debatable, but an extraordinary statement nonetheless.
Another winner is Turkey, which has clearly been funding and training HTS. It may now move on with plans to further degrade the Kurdish PKK that runs part of Northeast Syria. At any rate, my friends in Kurdistan are nervous, and reaching out.
But Assad’s fall is bad news for Moscow. Syria is Putin’s southern flank, and it looks like he has lost it. Being unable to protect his client makes him look weak, and he may now also lose his naval facility at Tartus. Russian planes have been landing there all day — doubtless to extract their men.
Syria is once more in revolution, and the region is once more in flux. I think again of the Homs clock tower. On 18 April 2011, thousands gathered at its base for a peaceful protest. In the early hours of the following day, security forces dispersed the crowd with live ammunition, killing several of the protestors. The “Clock Tower Massacre” lives on for Syrians, who are now be hoping that some form of justice, and improvement in their lives, is coming. We must pray that these hopes are not in vain.
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Source: UnHerd Read the original article here: https://unherd.com/